Modeling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the Lower Churchill River, Labrador

Abstract

Future streamflow in the Churchill River is of great interest to Nalcor Energy, the Newfoundland and Labrador energy corporation that is currently planning the development of a 3,074 MW hydroelectric project in Labrador. The current study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River. -- In this study, a dynamically downscaled future climate scenario is used to drive a hydrological model of the Pinus River basin to assess climate change impacts on localized streamflow between current (1969-2000) and future (2039-2070) periods. The WATFLOOD hydrological model has been selected for this purpose while the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program has served as the source of regional climate model (RCM) data. -- Biases were detected in RCM temperature and precipitation and non-linear bias-correction procedures were applied prior to simulation in the hydrological model. The results indicated a 13 percent increase in mean annual flow, concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.