Risk-based life cycle assessment methodology for green and safe product selection

Abstract

Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is an effective technique widely used to estimate the emissions produced during the entire life-cycle of a fuel or a product. However, most of the conventional LCA methods consider the risk of voluntary releases such as emissions, discharges or energy use. In other words, involuntary risks such as accident risks associated with exploration, production, storage, process and transportation have been overlooked. For hazardous materials involuntary risks could be significant; thus, ignoring this may result in imprecise LCA. The present study aims to develop a methodology for risk-based life-cycle assessment (RBLCA) of fossil fuels by integrating both the voluntary and involuntary risks (risk associated with potential accidents) of hazardous materials. The risk associated with potential accidents is estimated using Bayesian network approach. This provides a robust probabilistic platform of LCA. The application of the developed methodology is demonstrated for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) as fuels of a hypothetical power plant. The comparative analysis of two fuels based on RBLCA helps an analyst not only overcome data uncertainty but also identify holistically green and safer fuel option.