Simulation of hydro-ecological indices in a long-term hydrologic model using downscaled climate data

Abstract

The effects of climate change are likely to have a significant impact on environmental flows, which are often represented by alterations in hydrologic and ecological indices. Changes in ow regimes caused by climate change have implications for river ecology, and projections of future ow regimes must be reliable. In this study, the performance of hydrological models was evaluated with hydro-ecological indices to determine if stream ow characteristics could be reasonably modelled with RCM (Regional Climate Model) driven data. In general, it was found that RCM driven hydrological models could well simulate ecological stream ow characteristics with seasonal or monthly bias correction. However, characteristics that represented the frequency and rate of change of stream ow were not well simulated even with bias correction. RCM data driven models resulted in comparable error to the simulation of ERSS in a regional analysis. This gave confidence to the use of RCM driven data to simulate stream ow characteristics.