The simulation of urban system dynamics in Atlantic Canada, 1951-1991

Abstract

A dynamic urban model is used to study the post war evolution of the Atlantic Canada urban system. The computer based simulation model is calibrated for the period 1951-1986 and then employed to predict the 1991 population of each CMA and CA within the system. The simulation results show that to a large extent, the evolution of the system can be understood in terms of endogenous system dynamics rather than exogenous events. Specifically, competition among the cities of the region is a significant factor in the urban system evolution. The high degree of abstraction of the model means that data requirements for application are minimal, and the calibration procedure is relatively simple. The successful predictions show that the model can yield useful results in spite of its simplicity.