Objective realities and subjective perceptions: a multi-level analysis of immigration attitudes in Canada

Abstract

Despite Canada’s long-standing reputation for welcoming immigrants and strong public support for multiculturalism, increasing polarization exists among Canadians regarding acceptable immigration levels, especially with recent record-high admissions. While existing Canadian scholarship has focused on national trends and macroeconomic factors, my thesis examined the interplay of regional objective economic conditions and subjective national and personal economic perceptions in shaping Canadians’ immigration attitudes. Using data from the 2021 Canadian Election Study, the analysis showed that negative provincial economic performance (notably lower GDP growth rates) and negative perceptions of national and personal economic conditions were associated with less favorable views on immigration in Canada. Perceived job threats from immigrants also emerged as a strong predictor of these negative attitudes. These findings are consistent with the Sociotropic Economic Threat Perspective and the Labor Market Competition Theory. While the results related to objective economic markers align with existing research, this thesis contributes to the literature by highlighting the significant role of subjective economic perceptions in shaping Canadians’ immigration views.